First close over $100 since May 26. And buried in yesterday's state update is a number nobody's seen on a Bakken run ticket since 1986.

The Board Tonight

Crude is up more than 30 percent this month.

The $100 Line

Brent settled over 100 for the first time in almost two months. What pushed it over today: Trump told Axios he's close to a decision on a "massive attack" against Iran. US strikes hit their 12th straight night. And traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is down to about 10 ships a day...a year ago it was around 100. Nobody has officially closed that strait. But when war insurance on one transit doubles in a week to over 1 percent of the ship's value, the market prices it like it's shut.

Our Barrel, For Once

Here's the part nobody's talking about. North Dakota crude sold at a $2.56 PREMIUM over WTI in May. Not a smaller discount. A premium. First time since 1986.

The average Bakken barrel fetched 100.64 that month. The state built its whole budget on 59.

The Pipeline Authority director said he had to go back to the 1980s to find the last time our oil out-priced the benchmark. He calls it an anomaly and maybe it is. But for one month the barrel coming out of Williams County was worth more than the one coming out of Midland. Let that sink in.

What It Means On Location

Liberty's CEO said this morning there's "very modest white space" left in the frac calendar. Continental committed back in May to putting a rig back to work in North Dakota this year. And the private operators, the ones who've added most of this year's activity, move fast when price gives them a reason.

Dallas Fed says a new well pencils around 66 WTI. Keeping an existing well pumping runs about 41. At 92, everything in the country drills in the black. The math has been there for weeks...what's been missing is somebody willing to bet it holds.

The Catch

The North Dakota rig count sits at 24 tonight. That's DOWN two from spring, even with all this going on.

Budgets got set months ago when the planning decks said 59 to 66. Nobody rewrites a drilling program off two weeks of war prices. If this holds into fall, you'll see it in the 2027 budgets. That's quarters, not days. And that May premium is one month of data the state itself says won't last.

What It Does To Your Wallet

Diesel jumped 33.8 cents last week to 5.134...the third biggest weekly move in EIA history. For an owner-op running 2,500 miles a week that's roughly 130 bucks more out of pocket, every single week.

Wall Street felt it too. Dow dropped 507 points. The 10-year hit its highest since January 2025. And the market now puts better than 80 percent odds on the Fed RAISING rates in September. Truck notes, operating lines, credit cards...all of it gets more expensive while crude rips.

Where It Goes

SLB reports before the bell tomorrow, July 24. Baker Hughes rig count drops tomorrow afternoon...watch the Williston number, it was 27 last week.

And there's a 10-day ceasefire proposal sitting on the table right now that neither side has accepted. If they take it, remember early July...that deal sent WTI back to the 60s in days. Everything above is as of tonight's close. This market can give it back as fast as it took it.

Field Report

What are you seeing out there tonight...phones ringing, rigs moving, frac dates getting pulled forward, or same as last month? Drop your basin and what your crew's hearing below.