Oil spent three months bleeding that premium out. It took one session to put it back.
What Happened
- US Central Command hit more than 80 targets inside Iran overnight...the answer to three tankers attacked in the Strait of Hormuz
- Trump called the ceasefire "over" and more talks a "waste of time"
- Treasury yanked the waiver that let Iran sell its oil...sanctions back on
- Iran promised a "crushing response"...air defenses lit up over Kuwait and Bahrain
- Iranian state media reported explosions on Kharg Island, the terminal that moves most of Iran's crude exports
- Threat level for ships crossing Hormuz raised to "severe"
The Market Right Now
WTI $73.61, up 4.5%. Brent $77.52, up 4.5%. WCS up 6.2%. Both benchmarks touched 6% overnight.
What It Means on Location
Hormuz moves about 20 million barrels a day...a fifth of the world's oil through a waterway you can see across on a clear day. When it gets threatened, every barrel on earth reprices, including the one your rig is chasing. Higher crude means fatter netbacks and more reason to drill...that's a tailwind for the Bakken, the Permian, the Eagle Ford, the Rockies, everywhere iron's turning. But hold the celebration. A week ago WTI settled under $70 for the first time since the day before this war started. Same market, seven days apart. Geopolitics sets the price of your barrel, and it doesn't ask the field first. If Hormuz shuts again, this move was the warmup.
Monday we told you the war premium was gone and the market was pricing a glut. Tuesday we told you the reopening was never clean and crude can flip overnight. It's Wednesday. It flipped.
Watch the news, not just the price screen.
Hands are watching this move in real time...drop your basin, what you're running, and where you think crude lands by Friday. The field reads this stuff faster than the screens do.