100 days. A round number that means nothing to the people running this war and everything to the people whose jobs depend on what happens next.
The IEA called this the biggest oil supply disruption in history. Bigger than 1973. Bigger than 1979. Bigger than the Gulf War. And the rig count in North Dakota is still lower than it was a year ago.
The Comparison Nobody's Talking About
- 1973 Arab Oil Embargo...4.5 million barrels/day lost...prices up 300%
- 1979 Iranian Revolution...5.6 million barrels/day lost...prices up 150%
- 1990 Gulf War...4.3 million barrels/day lost...prices up 90%
- 2026 Hormuz Closure...14.4 million barrels/day lost...prices up 33%
The only reason oil isn't $200 right now is the government has been draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a pace never recorded in history to hold prices down. Back-to-back all-time weekly drain records. 54 million barrels gone in 5 months. That buffer is almost empty.
Macquarie Group's chief economist put one date on the clock...September 7. Labor Day.
If the strait is still closed on Labor Day...Brent goes to $130 to $150. If it drags into 2027...$200 oil.
The ceasefire was announced April 8. The strait is still closed.
Harold Hamm shut Continental's North Dakota drilling for the first time in 30 years back in January...and just reversed that call two weeks ago.
100 days. That's where we are.
What are you seeing out there right now...operators picking up the phone or still sitting on their hands?