The International Energy Agency tracks every barrel of oil moved on this planet. Today they published their April market report. They called it the largest oil supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Not the 1973 Arab embargo. Not the Gulf War. Not COVID. This one. Right now.

The Numbers

Before February 28, the Strait of Hormuz moved 20 million barrels per day. It now moves 3.8 million. That's an 81% collapse in flow through the world's most critical energy chokepoint.

In March, global oil supply dropped 10.1 million barrels per day in a single month. OPEC+ production fell 9.4 million barrels per day month-over-month. Global oil stocks fell 85 million barrels in 30 days. Physical crude hit $150 a barrel. Not futures. Physical barrels changing hands at $150.

To offset the damage, the IEA coordinated the largest emergency oil reserve release in history — 400 million barrels from strategic stockpiles across 32 countries. It hasn't been enough.

What IEA Director Fatih Birol Said This Morning

"In April, there is nothing." No new energy shipments have been loaded out of the Middle East in April. The cargo ships that were already at sea in February and March — those are still arriving at ports. That's what's keeping the lights on right now. When those ships finish unloading, there's nothing behind them.

He also said this: "As of today, we lost 13 million barrels per day. Tomorrow may be bigger."

What It Means for the Field

More than 80 energy facilities have been damaged since February 28. Refineries. Terminals. Upstream production. Pipelines. A third of them severely. The IEA said today it could take up to two years to restore Middle East output to pre-war levels.

The US is pumping 13.7 million barrels a day. We are the only country on earth with the capacity and infrastructure to partially fill a 13 million barrel per day hole. There is no version of this where US oilfield activity goes down.