Everybody is watching the crude price. The number that actually sets what you pay at the pump came out Wednesday, and nobody put it up against the history.
The Number Nobody Printed
EIA put national distillate stocks at 107.9 million barrels for the week ending September 11. Distillate is diesel and heating oil.
We pulled the full federal weekly series, which starts in 1982, and lined this week up against every other mid September on record.
- Lowest that week of the year has ever been. 44 years of data
- Next lowest mid September is 1996 at 112.3 million
- The 2 lowest September readings ever recorded both happened this month, September 4 and September 11
- Down 13.5% from a year ago
It Is Not A Crude Problem
The country pumped 13.9 million barrels a day that same week. That is the second highest week in American history, and the record was set the week before it.
The rigs came back because crude went to 100. We covered that Friday. But the barrel is not what is short.
The bottleneck moved downstream.
- Refineries ran at 96.8% of capacity, against 93.3% a year ago
- The Midwest ran at 100.0%, and 101.6% the week before that. Above its own rated capacity
- Total US refining capacity is 18,027,000 barrels a day, roughly 300,000 lower than 2 years ago
The system is running about as hard as it runs. There is no spare fleet parked somewhere waiting on a call out.
Where It Went
Refineries made more diesel this year than last, not less. Net production ran 5,227,000 barrels a day against 4,955,000 a year ago.
Americans burned less of it. Domestic demand was 3,501,000 against 3,621,000.
- Exports averaged 1,674,000 barrels a day over 4 weeks, against 1,265,000 a year ago
- That is 32% of what the country makes, up from 24
- Stocks still fell 13.5%
More made here, less burned here, and the stockpile still went to a record low.
The Part That Lands On North Dakota
A refinery at Joliet, Illinois tripped on a power outage 7 days ago today. Floodwater took out a pump on top of it. As of Friday it had not restarted and no restart date had been given.
EIA lists that one plant at 267,000 barrels a day.
North Dakota has 1 refinery that runs crude. Mandan. EIA lists it at 72,000 barrels a day. The Dickinson plant runs renewable diesel off soybean oil and other renewable feedstocks, not crude, so it is not in that number.
North Dakota used to have 2. Dickinson ran crude until 2020, about 19,000 barrels a day by EIA's count, and it got converted.
The plant that went dark in Illinois is 3.7 North Dakotas.
And this state pumps about 1,158,000 barrels a day off EIA's June number. That is roughly 16 barrels produced for every 1 barrel North Dakota has the capacity to refine. We ship crude out and buy our fuel back off a regional system that is stretched thin right now.
Last time that same plant lost power, tornadoes in July 2024, EPA ended up writing an emergency gasoline waiver for 4 states that ran from August 1 all the way to September 15.
The Board
- WTI...96.08 November contract. October went off the board Friday at 100.30
- BRENT...103.87
- DIESEL...6.505 AAA national, fresh record set today
- DIESEL...6.285 EIA weekly, up 31.8 cents in a week
- ND DIESEL...6.231
- NAT GAS...2.912
- BAKKEN RIGS...32 on the state's daily list
What It Means On Location
Nobody out here gets a raise because a refining margin went wide. What moves is the cost side, and it moves fast.
- Fuel surcharges reprice first. Hotshot and crude hauling feel it inside a week
- Harvest is running right now and the farms are buying the same gallon you are
Nobody builds a refinery back in a quarter. The 2022 record took 8 months to come down 25%, and that was with a bigger refining base than the country has today.
Who's Hiring
The current board is the one to check.
Field Report
Drop your basin and what you paid for diesel this week. Name the town. If your outfit already changed its fuel policy, say what changed.