WTI dropped from $103 to a low of $88.66 overnight... already back to $96 before the bell.
Operators don't budget around overnight whipsaws. They budget around the strip. And the strip has WTI in the high 80s through the back half of the year.
Goldman's Q4 target is $83. Permian breakeven is $67. Bakken breakeven is around $60.
We're still well above every number that matters.
What Actually Moved The Market
Iran ceasefire is holding. US and Iran are making progress on a deal. The war premium that pushed WTI over $115 last month is coming out... fast.
The Strait of Hormuz reopens, that premium goes to zero.
What This Means For The Field
Crews stay busy. Frac calendars don't get torn up. Wireline keeps running. Iron keeps moving.
The price that shuts down Bakken drilling is around $60. We're $36 above that.
California gas hit $6.11 a gallon yesterday. National average is $4.46. Pump prices lag wholesale by 1-2 weeks... so even with oil dropping, nobody feels relief at the pump until next week at the earliest.
Two things are certain this morning.
The war premium is coming out. And the field is still profitable.