Some of you asked what the Russia diesel deal does to the price at the pump.
Short answer...the first shipment covers about 15 hours of American diesel and heating oil use. So far the pump hasn't dropped on it. AAA's national diesel average went up a fraction of a cent Saturday.
The Board Tonight
- WTI...91.85
- Brent...104.72
- Diesel, AAA national average...6.2824
- Diesel, EIA weekly on-highway...6.199
- AAA diesel record...6.5276 (Sept 22)
Crude is Friday's settle. AAA is Saturday. EIA is the Oct 5 weekly.
What Was Announced
- Trump posted Friday that Russia will supply over 300,000 tons to the American and global marketplace right away, 500,000 in November, 1,000,000 after that, then 3,000,000 more depending on the condition of Russia's diesel refineries.
- Russia's Deputy PM Alexander Novak gave TASS the same first 3 numbers, October through December, for the US market and Russia's other buyers.
- Treasury's general license covers Russian diesel deliveries through April 7, 2027.
- Russia partly lifted its own diesel export ban, clearing 500,000 tons for foreign sale starting Oct 10, per TASS.
What 300,000 Tons Actually Is
Reuters put 300,000 tons at about 2.25 million barrels.
EIA says America used 3.65 million barrels a day of distillate the week ending Oct 2. That's diesel and heating oil together.
So the first shipment is about 15 hours of American use.
All 4.8 million tons on the announced list comes to about 10 days at the same math.
America exported 1.764 million barrels a day of distillate that same week, per EIA. US export docks load out the whole first shipment's worth in about 31 hours.
The bigger number is Novak's. He said Russia's diesel exports could climb to almost 3 million tons a month down the road. That's Russia's total to every buyer, not a US number. At the same math it comes to about 740,000 barrels a day. US diesel follows the world price, so barrels that size would count.
Why The Futures Moved
NYMEX diesel futures settled at $4.74 Friday, down 14.45 cents. That settle came 16 minutes before Trump's post went up.
The slide ran alongside Isaias heading for Florida, China moving to restart fuel exports after its holiday, and Trump saying at a White House event that a diesel announcement was coming.
After the post, futures traded as low as $4.64 and sat near $4.68 when trading stopped for the weekend. That part shows up in Monday's settle.
Pump prices trail futures by days to weeks. AAA had the national diesel average at $6.28 Saturday, 7 cents under a week ago and about 25 cents under the Sept 22 record.
The hole is in the tank. EIA has distillate stocks at 105.1 million barrels, 16.4 million under the same week last year.
Russian barrels feed the world market. Even the ones that land here come in on a coast, a long way from a Williston card lock.
What It Means On Location
- Truckers: most fuel surcharge tables key off the EIA weekly on-highway number. The next one is due Wednesday, Oct 14, because of the Monday holiday.
- Farmers: North Dakota's executive order lets licensed vehicles run dyed diesel for farm work through Nov 30, including hauling grain, livestock, feed, seed, fertilizer and equipment. That's 19 cents a gallon of state tax, 23 on clear vs 4 on dyed. The state order doesn't touch the 24.4 cent federal tax. A federal order on Oct 5 told the IRS to drop the highway penalty on dyed fuel through Dec 31 and to defer that tax where the law allows, not forgive it. Check with your fuel dealer or tax guy before you run red on the road.
- Hands: a diesel headline doesn't change pay. Budgets get set by the quarter. Operators were adding iron before any of this. Baker Hughes had 603 US rigs Friday, the most since May 2024, with the Permian up 4 to 274.
- North Dakota: Baker Hughes counted 35 rigs in the Williston Basin Friday, flat on the week, and that basin reaches into Montana. The state's DMR daily list had 34 drilling rigs turning to the right in North Dakota the same day. Those are 2 different counts.
The Catch
The last 3,000,000 tons in Trump's post rides on the condition of Russia's diesel refineries, and Reuters notes drone strikes have hit those facilities.
Isaias came ashore near Destin, Florida, Friday night as a Category 2. Federal offshore regulators still had 68.76% of Gulf oil production shut in as of Saturday's report, down from 71.51% Friday. Undamaged platforms come back online right away.
Who's Hiring
37 seats from 13 companies on this week's board, across North Dakota, Wyoming, Texas and New Mexico.
The current board is the one to check.
Field Report
Drop your basin, what you paid for diesel this week, and whether your fuel surcharge moved.