WTI ran to $96.55 this morning. Brent broke $101. Highest WTI has been since June 3.

So everybody out here is asking the same thing. Is it about to get busy.

We pulled the state's own production list and lined up two months.

The Two Months

Twelve years apart. 978 barrels a day MORE today.

Now the rig count on those same two dates.

WHY

In 2014 those 188 rigs were building the thing. The well count was small and the only way the number went up was to keep drilling.

It is built now.

The most producing Bakken wells this state has ever recorded. More than double 2014.

35 rigs are not growing that. They are holding it level against decline, and a 3 mile lateral hits 200,000 barrels in about 22 months where a 2 mile well took 46.

What It Means On Location

Every one of those 17,809 wells is falling off right now. You have all watched one come on at 2,000 and settle out at 80.

That decline is not a problem. That decline is the job.

Somebody has to gauge them. Haul them. Hot oil them. Swab them. Pull rods. Set a workover rig on them the day they quit.

None of that shows up on a rig count. None of it goes away when the price drops.

The Catch

A $96 print does not land in your check this month. Budgets move in quarters, not headlines. If it holds through the fall you see it in 2027 programs, not Friday's direct deposit.

And 35 is still 35. The all time high was 218 rigs, back in May 2012.

Where It Goes

Watch the completion crews, not the rig count. Wireline, frac, water, sand, hotshot. That side moves a paycheck months before a rig number does.

17,809 wells and somebody has to run every one of them. Who is hiring in the Bakken this week is on the board.

Every figure above is NDIC's own, off the state historical Bakken production stats and the active drilling rig list.

Field Report

Drop your basin and what you are seeing this week. Busier than you were in June, or the same grind at a better price?