Nobody put out a press release. It just happened.
The Number
- North Dakota rig count this morning...36
- Mid July...26
Ten more rigs turning to the right than we had six weeks ago. Straight off the state's active rig list, not a news story.
Who Picked Their Iron Back Up
The state's August 20 briefing flagged five operators that had zero rigs running in July: Eben Operating, Firebird Services, Iron Oil Operating, Murex Petroleum, Zavanna Energy Operating.
Three of them are on the list as of this morning:
- Murex Petroleum...spudded a well in Williams County YESTERDAY
- Iron Oil Operating...spudded in Mountrail County on Sunday
- Zavanna...turning in Williams County since the 12th
You'll notice these are not strangers. Murex has been working this state since 1996 and runs its district office out of Tioga. Zavanna and the companies before it have been in the Williston since 1981. These are Bakken outfits that sat rigs down and just went back to work.
That is a different signal than an outsider rolling in. An operator that already owns the acreage, already has the office, already knows the roads, does not spend money on a rig unless the math cleared.
Why Rig Count Is The Only Number That Matters
Price tells you what traders think this morning. Production tells you what happened two months ago. Rig count tells you what happens NEXT.
A rig turning means somebody already signed a contract, already committed the capital, already locked in the location. That decision is made and it does not get undone because crude moved three dollars.
And a rig does not run by itself. It needs water, roustabouts, hot oil, vac trucks, roll offs, wireline, and somebody who knows which section road washes out in the spring.
What The State Put Out
The August 20 Director's Cut, covering June:
- 1,153,000 barrels a day, up 2.45 percent over May
- 3.58 Bcf a day of gas, an all time North Dakota record
- 19,961 producing wells, another record
- 95.5 percent gas capture statewide
- 193 drilled but uncompleted wells sitting in inventory as of August 1
- 19 operators working the state
Those 193 DUCs are the part nobody talks about. That's 193 wells already drilled, already paid for, waiting on a frac crew. That work is coming whether crude sits at 80 or 90.
The Catch
Crude has fallen three straight days on talk of a Hormuz shipping corridor. WTI is sitting just under 83 this morning, down over two bucks on the day.
North Dakota break evens run 50 to 60. There's real room at 83. But these rigs got planned while this state was averaging over 100 a barrel back in May, the first time ND crude traded at a PREMIUM to WTI in about 40 years.
Ten rigs in six weeks. If this list hits 40 by October, this stops being a story and starts being a hiring wave.
Where It Goes
Records on gas. Records on producing wells. Ten rigs back to work in six weeks while everybody was reading war headlines.
This basin isn't quiet right now. It's just not loud on the news.
Who's Hiring
Ten companies on the board this week. Hot oil, winch, crude hauling, roustabout, mechanic, dispatch, hydrotest. Real listings, no recruiters, no resume farms.
The full board with every apply link is on the DHR jobs page.
Field Report
Drop your county and what you're seeing.
Anybody catch new iron moving in on your lease roads this month? Working for one of those crews? Williams, McKenzie, Mountrail, Dunn, Stark, tell us what's actually turning out there.