Trump's back in office pushing deregulation and everybody expected an oil boom. Here's what's actually happening:
The Numbers
- Permian rig count: Down 52 rigs year-over-year (252 rigs in October 2025)
- ConocoPhillips: Cutting 2,600-3,250 jobs (20-25% of workforce)
- Chevron: Eliminating 7,000-9,500 jobs by end of 2026
- Current WTI crude: ~$57/barrel
- Oil price needed for operators to hire: $70-75/barrel
What A Permian Operator Actually Said
"Drill baby drill definitely did not happen in any stretch of the imagination... The administration is pushing for $40 per barrel crude oil... I think every producer in the United States is 100% a Trump fan, and for the administration to devastate the one industry that keeps this country secure... it's just heartbreaking."
Kirk Edwards, President, Latigo Petroleum (Odessa, TX)
Here's The Problem
Low oil prices help consumers at the pump. But they kill oilfield jobs. You can't have both.
Trump wants cheap gas for voters AND a booming oil industry. The math doesn't work. Operators won't drill at $50-60 oil when they need $70-75 to make money.
So where does that leave us? Waiting for oil prices to recover while watching companies consolidate and cut jobs.
This is the reality nobody's talking about.