As of 11 a.m. Central Thursday, Gulf operators had shut in 1,282,879 barrels a day...62.9% of offshore production, per the federal Marine Minerals Administration. North Dakota averaged 1.157 million barrels a day in July, the state's latest count.
A risk modeler at Enki Research told Bloomberg Wednesday the production hit would likely last no more than a week if the track holds. What decides the storm's hit to your diesel price is whether it damages refineries on the coast, and the country goes into it with the least diesel and heating oil in storage for early October in EIA's weekly records, which go back to 1982.
The Board Thursday
- Brent...104.28 (December, up 4%)
- WTI...91.49 (November, up 3.6%)
- Diesel, AAA national average...6.2847, off the 6.5276 record from 9/22. EIA's weekly survey...6.199 for 10/5
- North Dakota diesel...6.0092. Texas...5.7036, per AAA
- US distillate stocks, diesel and heating oil...105.1 million barrels for the week ending 10/2. Same week last year...121.6 million, per EIA
Brent's jump wasn't all the storm. Kpler counted 10 tankers struck in the Strait of Hormuz from 9/28 to 10/4, the most in any week of the war. The old weekly high was 6.
Where The Storm Is
- 100 mph winds at 4 p.m. Central Thursday, Category 2 strength, per the National Hurricane Center
- Landfall expected late Friday or early Saturday. The hurricane warning runs from Ocean Springs, Mississippi into the Florida Panhandle
- 5 to 7 feet of storm surge forecast from Ocean Springs to Indian Pass, Florida, Mobile Bay included
- First hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season, and the latest a season's first hurricane has formed since 1905, per NOAA
What's Shut In
- 121 of the Gulf's 371 manned platforms evacuated, plus 5 drilling rigs
- 1.13 billion cubic feet a day of gas shut in...57.4% of Gulf output
- Wednesday's count was 511,619 barrels a day. It more than doubled in 24 hours
The Refineries
- More than half of US refining sits on the Gulf Coast, per EIA. The big Louisiana and Texas plants are west of this storm and outside the hurricane warning as of Thursday afternoon
- Nearly 500,000 barrels a day of refining sits in or near the storm's path, per Bloomberg. The biggest piece is Chevron's Pascagoula refinery in Mississippi, about 356,000 barrels a day by EIA's count, near the west end of the warning
- S&P Global's head of crude oil market research said other Gulf storms have caused bigger supply disruptions. What worries him more is a strong storm hitting near refineries
The Cushion
- No other early October reading in EIA's weekly records back to 1982 got as low as 105.1 million. The closest was 106.1 million, the week ending 10/7/2022
- East Coast distillate ran 32% below its 5 year average in September, per EIA, and that coast leans on Gulf Coast refineries for fuel
- IEA members agreed Wednesday to put diesel first in their emergency stock releases. Members hold more than 200 million barrels of diesel in those stocks, per the IEA's head
What It Means On Location
Crews came off 121 platforms in the Gulf this week. When those platforms restart is the first thing to watch.
Hotshots, crude haulers and diesel frac fleets all burn fuel priced off the same wholesale market. If the plants in the path come through clean, the storm's part of the move should fade once the offshore barrels come back. Real damage would land on supply that's record-thin for this time of year.
A single day's jump to $91 oil doesn't move a drilling budget. Those get set by the quarter.
Where It Goes From Here
What to watch...landfall late Friday into Saturday, the daily federal shut-in counts, word from the refineries once it passes, and EIA's weekly numbers Thursday 10/15.
Who's Hiring
This week's board has 22 North Dakota seats, 10 of them with no CDL, plus seats in Wyoming, Texas and New Mexico.
The current board is the one to check.
Field Report
Hands on the coast, take care of your people first. If you got pulled off a platform this week or you're watching a plant down there, drop what you're seeing.
Everybody else, drop your town or basin and what diesel is running at your pump tonight.