The last bypass route just got put in crosshairs.
- Hormuz already moving only 3.8M bpd...down from 20M
- Saudi East-West pipeline exits at Yanbu on the Red Sea
- That pipeline is the only reason 7M bpd is still moving
- Iran threatening Persian Gulf, Sea of Oman, AND Red Sea
- A quarter of the world's energy supply behind two blockades
Iran's military said it this morning on state television...if the US blockade continues, they will stop all exports and imports across the Persian Gulf, Sea of Oman, and the Red Sea. The head of Iran's central military command put it plainly: they will not allow any trade to continue across those waters.
The Saudi East-West pipeline has been running at full capacity since Hormuz closed. It's been the only thing keeping global supply from complete collapse. It exits at Yanbu...on the Red Sea.
The Math If This Happens
Hormuz is already at 19% of normal flow. The bypass routes are handling about 7 million barrels a day. Combined, that's still less than half of pre-war supply.
If the Red Sea closes, those 7 million barrels stop moving too. There is no bypass for the bypass. The IEA already called this the largest supply disruption in recorded history. This would be a different category entirely.
What It Means For The Field
Every barrel in the Permian, the Bakken, and the Eagle Ford just became more critical than it was an hour ago.
Operators locked their 2026 budgets before this war started and they're not moving fast. But there's a number that breaks budget discipline...and we may be approaching it.
The world is running out of workarounds. American crude isn't one of them.
What's your operator saying this week?