Here's what nobody is pricing in...
After the Islamabad talks collapsed, Iran had already lost track of the sea mines it laid in the Strait of Hormuz... which means even if Khamenei picked up the phone and said "deal" today, the strait can't just flip open. The Navy confirmed that.
Right now, two US Navy guided-missile destroyers are in the strait running mine-clearing operations, backed by underwater drones and specialized helicopters. CENTCOM says they're working to establish a "new safe passage" and will share the coordinates with the maritime industry "soon."
That word... soon... is doing a lot of heavy lifting.
- WTI: $83.65/bbl... down over $11 Friday after Iran declared Hormuz open
- Brent: $88.14/bbl... down over $11 Friday
- Saturday morning IRGC gunboats fired on tankers and slammed it shut again
- Goldman Sachs put flows at 10% of normal... 2.1M bbl/day vs 20M pre-war
- During the "ceasefire" Iran was charging ships over $1M per vessel to transit
- UN tried to pass a resolution to protect shipping... China and Russia vetoed it
- The day after the first ceasefire Iran opened a brand new naval base right at the strait entrance
The IEA called this the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.
The Toll Booth Story Nobody Told You
While the "ceasefire" was active, Iran was running a state-sanctioned toll booth on 20% of world oil... charging over $1 million per ship to transit the strait. The UN tried to stop it. China and Russia vetoed it. And the day after the first ceasefire was announced, Iran quietly opened a brand new naval base on Qeshm Island... right at the eastern entrance to the strait.
What This Means For The Patch
$83 WTI doesn't kill permits. Operators aren't pulling rigs over a two-week swing. What it does is freeze completion decisions. DUCs sit. Frac crews get pushed. The wells are drilled, the money's spent, but nobody's completing iron into an $83 market with a Wednesday wildcard on the calendar. Watch the frac spread count. That's where you'll feel this first.
What It Means For Your Tank
National average is still $4.09. Don't expect the sign to change this week. You're not seeing relief until barrels actually move. Barrels don't move until the mines are cleared. Mines don't clear overnight. If Wednesday falls apart... expect a violent snap back toward triple digits.
Where It Stands Right Now
The ceasefire expires Tuesday, April 21. Trump's deadline is Wednesday. Monday talks in Islamabad. Nobody's signed anything.
But even if they do... count the weeks, not the hours. The mines don't care about a handshake.
Watch Sunday night futures. That's your real answer.
You tell me... does Iran sign by Wednesday or does this get loud again?