Project Freedom launched at dawn. Iran answered with missiles, drones, and fast boats.

Here's exactly what happened.

Iran launched cruise missiles at U.S. Navy destroyers and commercial ships. They launched drones at commercial vessels. Then they sent six fast boats directly at shipping in the strait. Every cruise missile was intercepted. Every drone launch was defended. The six fast boats were sunk by U.S. Army AH-64 Apache and Navy MH-60 Seahawk helicopters.

CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper confirmed Iran historically deploys 20 to 40 small boats when harassing vessels. Today they sent six. "We saw just six, and eliminated them quickly."

No U.S. ships hit. No U.S. casualties.

Iran hit a South Korean cargo ship. The UAE confirmed Iran targeted an ADNOC oil tanker with two drones. Israel's Iron Dome...secretly deployed to the UAE at the start of the war...intercepted at least three Iranian cruise missiles.

Now here's what this means for every hand working oil and gas right now.

The Strait of Hormuz moves 20% of the world's oil. Closed since February 28. Every tanker that can't transit that 21-mile corridor either sits stranded in the Persian Gulf or reroutes around the entire continent of Africa. That's weeks of additional transit time. That's why WTI is sitting at $106 right now. That's why Brent jumped back above $110 today on this news.

Before this war started WTI was $65. Before this war started the national average at the pump was $2.98 a gallon. Today it's $4.46. Analysts are warning $5 by Memorial Day if the strait doesn't fully reopen.

Here's the math for the field.

$106 oil is well above the $50...65 Bakken breakeven. It's well above the $45...55 Permian breakeven. Every dollar above breakeven is margin. Margin funds budgets. Budgets fund rigs. Rigs fund jobs. The Halliburton CEO already said the U.S. oil recovery is in the "early innings." That math only works if prices hold.

Two U.S. destroyers transited the strait today. Two U.S.-flagged merchant vessels got through safely. Vessels from 87 different countries are still stranded in the Persian Gulf...including oil tankers that haven't moved in months.

If Project Freedom holds and the strait reopens...Goldman Sachs says WTI drifts toward $83 by Q4. Still profitable. Still above breakeven. But the windfall fades.

If Iran escalates and the strait stays shut...Citi is calling $150 Brent. JPMorgan says the market math "doesn't add up" and a spike is coming.

Trump warned Iran they would be "blown off the face of the Earth" if they targeted U.S. ships. The Pentagon holds a press conference Tuesday morning.

The strait isn't open. But today the U.S. drew a line...and oil is telling you exactly how serious this is.