When the Strait of Hormuz went dark on February 28, the math got real simple. Twenty million barrels a day used to move through that water. Pipeline bypasses cover maybe five million of it. The rest has to come from somewhere.
That somewhere is here.
Empty supertankers are crossing oceans right now pointed at one destination...the US Gulf Coast. Not Saudi Arabia. Not Iraq. Here.
- Oil market analyst Rory Johnston posted the map on X...dozens of empty VLCCs, each carrying 2 million barrels, all pointed at the US Gulf Coast
- Trump reshared it Saturday morning and called it "Fantastic"
- 247 tankers are sitting stranded in the Middle East Gulf with nowhere to deliver
- The IEA declared it the largest oil supply disruption in recorded history
- US Gulf Coast refineries hit 96.7% utilization...the normal seasonal average is 82%
- US crude exports broke a record in March...and refineries are still running flat out
- WTI crossed $100 again this morning...up 8% before lunch after the blockade was confirmed
- The US pumps 13.7 million barrels a day. We're the only country that can even partially fill the gap Hormuz left
For The Hands Actually Doing The Work
The barrel you pulled out of the ground today isn't staying in America.
It's going to a refinery in South Korea. Japan. Europe. Countries that spent decades buying from the Middle East just redirected their entire supply chain toward the patch you work in.
Those Gulf Coast export terminals are getting buried. You don't send dozens of supertankers across the ocean on a hunch.
US refined product exports hit a record in March. Refineries are running harder than they have in years. The field isn't slowing down...it's the opposite.
What It's Costing You To Get To Location
Here's where it gets complicated.
When every refinery is maxed out and exporting record volumes, less of that product stays domestic. National average gas hit $4.12 today. Up $1.20 since February 28.
The hand driving to location before sunrise is subsidizing the world's energy supply right now. That's not an opinion...that's the math.
American crude is the anchor barrel keeping the global economy from seizing up. That's a long-term win for everyone working the patch.
But don't let anyone tell you the people doing that work aren't feeling it too.
The US oilfield is the most critical industrial operation on earth right now.
Not OPEC. Not the Persian Gulf. The Permian. The Eagle Ford. The Bakken.
If Hormuz stays shut through summer...and today's blockade isn't making that less likely...the majors are going to need more of everything. More rigs. More frac crews. More wireline. More drivers.
The question isn't whether the work is coming.
The question is whether you're positioned when it does.